The Times They Are a-Changin'

I am unable to understand why the BJP, Shiv Sena, and the MNS cannot understand some very very simple logic.

Say the Congress had z number of supporters, while the right wing voter base was x. And lets just say,  that x and z were pretty comparable and the fight was tough.

The right wing voter earlier had pretty much one choice- the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. Assuming, that the overall right wing voter population is not going to suddenly alter by staggering proportions, we basically had x number of guys, who voted for BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. But now with the Sena- MNS split, the right wing voter is presented with two choices- BJP-Shiv Sena and the MNS. So out of the x number of right wing voters, we now have a y number of voters going for the MNS, leaving the BJP-Shiv Sena at (x-y).

So while Congress retains its z (give or take a few of course), the BJP-Shiv Sena has lost y to the MNS.

Essentially, given that the BJP-ShivSena and MNS are not going to come together (given the dramatic split)- it now becomes easier for the Congress to win a majority over the BJP-Shiv Sena (x-y) and the MNS (y).

In the General Elections in May 2009, a strong BJP leader lost out to Congress candidate Sanjay Nirupam (who lives in the building my home in Bombay is), and in these State elections too, the division in the right-wing is going to cost them votes.

Not that I am complaining :)